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Russian-Georgian Conflict
Jeopardizes Armenia’s Interests
Thousands of innocent South Ossetians as well as Georgians
and Russians have lost their lives in recent days as a
result of a strategic miscalculation by Georgia’s leader
that triggered a massive counterattack by Russia’s powerful
armed forces.
After coming to power in 2004, Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili made no secret of his intention to return to
Georgian rule, by force if necessary, the three breakaway
regions of Ajaria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Moreover, he
sought to remove his country from the Russian sphere of
influence by aligning Georgia with the West and NATO. In the
spring of 2004, Saakashvili succeeded in reincorporating the
autonomous region of Ajaria into the Republic of Georgia
without firing a single shot. Since then, he has tried to
bring under his government’s control the two remaining
regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Russian leadership resented Georgia’s attempts to
realign its military and political relationships away from
Moscow. It was only a matter of time before Russia would
take advantage of an opportunity to try and bring Georgia
back into its fold or at least reduce the U.S./Nato
influence in the country.
In my judgment, Saakashvili, expecting political, if not
military, support from the West, miscalculated badly
Russia’s devastating reaction when he initiated last week’s
surprise attack on South Ossetia. This breakaway region not
only borders Russia, but its inhabitants are citizens of
Russia, giving the Kremlin ample reason to intervene and
carry out Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s declared
intent “to punish” Georgia’s president.
When Georgian troops started bombing South Ossetia’s
capital, causing not only the deaths of over 1,000 innocent
civilians but also that of a dozen or so Russian
peacekeepers stationed there, Moscow felt it had to act
quickly and overwhelmingly. Oblivious to Western
condemnations of its counterattack, the Russian military
embarked on widespread bombing of Georgia’s airbases and
seaports beyond the immediate war front. The crisis could
escalate further, should the Russian Air Force bomb the
recently completed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelines that carry
Azerbaijani oil and gas through Georgia and Turkey to
Western Europe. The Russians may have decided to use a
massive show of force not only to repel the Georgian attack
but also to bolster South Ossetia’s de facto independence
from Georgia. Furthermore, Russia may take similar measures
to ensure that Georgia gives up on any plans to bring under
its control Abkhazia, another self-declared independent
state.
Despite several days of emergency sessions, the UN Security
Council has not been able to come up with a mutually
agreeable resolution to the conflict. As a permanent member
of the Security Council, Russia can veto any unfavorable
resolution submitted by the United States at the request of
its Georgian ally. The United States, already bogged down in
Iraq and Afghanistan, and led by a lame duck president who
had gone to China to watch the Olympic Games, does not seem
to have much leverage over Russia—to the chagrin of
Saakashvili. Making matters worse for the White House,
Georgia withdrew its 2,000 soldiers from Iraq—the third
largest foreign force after the U.S. and U.K.—in order to
confront the Russian military at home.
Meanwhile, these are anxious days for Armenia, Georgia’s
southern neighbor. Given Armenia’s close relationship with
both Russia and Georgia, Armenian officials have simply
called for a quick stop of the bloodshed. Armenia neither
wishes to antagonize its long-standing Russian ally nor risk
the cut-off of its vital supplies brought in through the
Black Sea ports of Georgia. Already, the Russians have
bombed the Georgian coastline and prevented ships from
unloading their cargo, some of which is destined for
Armenia. A prolonged closure of Georgia’s ports could have a
devastating impact on Armenia’s economy.
Another major concern for Armenians worldwide is the safety
and well-being of several hundred thousand of their kinsmen
residing in Georgia. So far, there have been no reports of
any Armenian casualties in this conflict. The normally
restive Armenian inhabitants of Javakhk—the southern region
of Georgia located north of the Armenian bor-
der—who have been subjected to discriminatory treatment by
Georgian authorities, have remained calm during the current
war. Meanwhile, the Armenian government has safely evacuated
several thousand citizens of Armenia who had been
vacationing on Georgia’s coastline.
The most serious concern for Armenia, however, is the danger
that neighboring Azerbaijan may draw the wrong conclusion
from Georgia’s surprise attack on South Ossetia and decide
to invade Artsakh (Karabagh). Such an attack could engulf
the entire Caucuses region causing great loss of life on all
sides and risk the stoppage of the flow of oil and gas to
Europe through the Baku-Ceyhan pipelines, which are within
striking distance of both Armenia and Artsakh.
The most important issue at the moment, however, is neither
oil supplies nor political calculations, but protecting the
lives of tens of thousands of civilians on all sides of the
Russian-Georgian-Ossetian conflict and preventing its
expansion into the neighboring states.
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